New Delhi: Amid the possible threat of the third wave, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has called on states enriched by tourism – Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and others to impose a protocol to combat the spread of the coronavirus . In addition, he asked these states / UT to make compulsory vaccination certificates and RT-PCR tests for those who arrive.Also Read – Bhubaneswar Civic Body Issues New Stricter COVID-19 Guidelines; Meeting limits of 50 people
Notably, data from Himachal Pradesh suggests that during a typical holiday season, tourism can increase the population by 40%. A recent study in the United States suggests that an increase of one log unit in population density increases R0 (the basic reproduction number / rate) by 0.16. Also Read – States Cannot Refuse Rs 50,000 Ex gratia if death certificate does not mention Covid, Supreme Court says
“Given this, the peak of the third wave can increase by up to 47% during the holiday season and can occur two weeks earlier compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel.” , an opinion piece, based on mathematical models from Balram Bhargava, Samiran Panda and Sandip Mandal from ICMR and Nimalan Arinaminpathy from Imperial College London. The opinion piece was published in the Journal of Travel Medicine. Also read – Manipur launches ‘Make in India‘ drone to transport Covid vaccines
He added: “A sudden increase in population density due to the arrival of tourists or mass congregations for social, political or religious reasons may worsen the third wave scenario,” the researchers said in the opinion piece.
Additionally, the researchers in their study illustrated some possible scenarios in a hypothetical state in India built to resemble Himachal Pradesh in the dynamics of its first and second waves, including the much lower seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2. compared to the rest of the country. .
“A sudden increase in population density due to incoming tourists or mass congregations for social, political or religious reasons can worsen the third wave scenario,” the experts added.
Meanwhile, India reported 18,346 new cases in the past 24 hours on Tuesday, the lowest in 209 days. The number of active cases stood at 2,52,902, while the recovery rate improved to 97.93%.